Despite a 42% drawdown starting around the 14th of September, Gui Lin Li has bounced back strongly to continue dominating Stage 4 of the Trading Cup.
On the 14th of September, things started to unfold for Gui Lin, with a $289 loss, followed quickly by an $1102 loss.
We’ll review Gui Lin’s equity curve in more detail below.
But a big congratulations to James Hu, who has jumped to second on the leaderboard, with an electrifying return of 157.57% at the time of capturing the data.
And sitting in third place is Hai Ting Li, one of our most consistent traders, month after month.
Let’s take a look at the leaderboard on the last day of the trading week.
As we close out the week, we noticed the Nasdaq index has come under selling pressure for Wednesday and Thursday this week, as the tech giants see profit-takers step in.
We’ve seen Apple Inc shares drop over 20% in 10 days, Tesla Inc dropped 34% in just four days (but has since rebounded), Amazon is down 14.8% in the last ten days, and Facebook shares have dropped over 15% in 10 days.
Bloomberg noted in the tweet below that based on Jerome Powell’s Fed Press Conference earlier this week that the tech giants days may be limited, as he aims to keep interest rates low and stoke the fire under inflation.
On another note, Goldman Sachs is suggesting the US could likely be back to full employment and strong inflation levels as early as 2025.
Market reactions to Jerome Powell and other news this week saw the US dollar jump higher, only to be sold down late in the session. Gold could not hold onto gains booked early in the week, falling $15.61 to $1,943.29 this morning.
Placing 871 trades in just 14 trading days is no small feat. That’s trading at a clip of 62 trades per day.
And you can see the results of Gui’s trading activity, which has seen his average loss hit a staggering high of $130.
In contrast, his average win is just $18.74.
But to balance that incredible difference out, Gui Lin is winning on 91.96% of his trades.
When you are fighting the trend, which is rapidly moving against you, and adding to your position size, it is not uncommon to see a series of larger than normal losses.
You can see in the table that Gui Lin’s largest loss is $1,102.
But this is the reversed quickly when the market bounces back, providing a series of larger than normal wins.
You will find martingale position sizing strategies tend to work better in range-bound markets and perform poorly in trending markets.
You can see from the chart Gold, the market has been tracking sideways, hovering between $1910 and $1975 for most of September.
Here are the instruments that Gui Lin Li has been trading.
James Hu has been quietly (if possible when you have made 157% in gains!), edging up the leaderboard across 191 trades.
While he doesn’t have a win rate as high as Gui Lin, his average win and average loss are a lot more even, coming in at $48 each side.
Here is a snapshot of James’ results halfway through the month.
You can see how consistent James has been, balancing the wins and losses, while seemingly giving himself the opportunity for upside while cutting off his losses short.
Here are the trading instruments James has been trading.
It is easy to see why James has focused extensively on the Nasdaq 100 index, which has been one of the most volatile instruments in September.
You can see the significant drop down as investors grew nervous over extreme valuations seen across many tech giants, bringing back memories of the tech boom and crash of 1999/2000.
It’s hard to call anyone an ‘expert’ in anything, but it is clear James has found his sweet spot in trading the volatility seen on the tech index.
Following an impressive 5th place in Stage 3, Hai Ting Li follows up his success with a strong performance in Stage 4, returning 124% halfway through September.
Hai Ting Li isn’t as active as some of our leaders, having only placed 96 trades this month.
For a ‘normal’ trader, 96 is still a high-frequency, moving at a clip of approximately six trades per day.
Let’s take a look at how Hai Ting Li has achieved these stratospheric returns in such a short space of time.
Plenty of consistency, trade after trade, as you can see from the high number of green bars, locking in win after win. These are coupled with the occasional larger loss (relatively speaking).
In a similar fashion to Gui Lin, Hai Ting ha a high average loss, sitting at $195, whereas his average win is just $56.
But it is his win rate of 88% that is well and truly keeping him atop the leaderboard.
One thing we have noticed in September is the overall strength of the leaderboard, with 10th place sitting on an impressive return of 18.61%.
It’s like the market volatility has been there, but there have been no run-away moves on any FX or commodity, meaning traders can trade steadily, without any large downside swings.
We have also noticed in previous years that the more trading contests we run, the better the overall results of all traders get.
It is sort of like when Roger Bannister famously broke the 4-minute mile.
Following this, hundreds of others managed this incredible feat.
Once the record was set, the collective belief system of all others changed dramatically.
Likewise, in the trading cup, it can be quite intimidating when starting.
No-one likes to lose money.
But to get a positive result, you have to be willing to risk capital in order to get a return.
The strength of our leaderboard in September is testimony to the increased belief people have about their trading ability.
What about you?
Are you ready to compete and start trading your best systems to allow you to get a benchmark performance, which you can aim to beat month after month?
Now is the time to step up and join us for Stage 4. There are only 2.5 months left.
Click the link below to get started.
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Ashley Jessen is the author of CFDs Made Simple and Chief Operating Officer at ACY Securities. He has been in the financial services industry since the year 2000 and worked for some of the leading companies in the CFD, Forex and Online Trading space.